Spring runoff boosts Crowsnest Pass water outlook

Crowsnest Pass was heading into summer with a stronger water supply outlook than in recent years, according to Alberta’s latest provincial forecast.

The Government of Alberta released its May Water Supply Outlook on May 25, saying most of the province’s major rivers were expected to see better flows through September after improved mountain snowpack and spring storms brought more moisture to much of Alberta.

For Crowsnest Pass, the outlook was tied closely to the Oldman River basin, which includes the Crowsnest River and surrounding headwaters. The province said river volumes were forecast to be above normal or well above normal for the North Saskatchewan, Red Deer and Bow river basins, as well as most parts of the Oldman River basin.

“Most of Alberta is heading into the summer season in a much better situation than we’ve seen in recent years. Strong river flows, full reservoirs and additional mountain snowmelt still to come are all good news for communities, agricultural producers and the many industries that depend on a reliable source of water,” said Grant Hunter, Minister of Environment and Protected Areas.

Hunter said the province was still watching conditions in the far south and was prepared to take “a more active water management role” if needed.

The May outlook said river volumes were generally expected to be greater than in 2025 and, in some cases, well above last year’s volumes. The province attributed much of the improved forecast to strong snowpack conditions in the Rocky Mountains.

According to the province, 92 per cent of mountain snowpack sites surveyed around the beginning of May had above normal or well above normal conditions. Fifteen per cent had the highest snowpack conditions on record.

Alberta conducts monthly mountain snowpack surveys from February 1 to June 1. From February through August, the province uses snowpack and precipitation data to prepare water supply forecasts for 20 locations in central and southern Alberta, from the North Saskatchewan River basin south to the Milk River basin.

The improved outlook followed several dry years that put pressure on southern Alberta communities, agricultural producers, irrigators, recreation users and watershed systems. In the Crowsnest Pass, river conditions are important for municipal planning, wildfire risk, fisheries, tourism, recreation and the broader health of the Oldman watershed.

The province said water storage levels in major southern Alberta reservoirs were also in strong condition. Total storage was normal in the Red Deer River basin and above normal in the Bow, Oldman and South Saskatchewan River basins.

Despite the improved forecast, the Oldman River basin was still listed as Stage 2 for drought as of May 11. Alberta’s drought stages range from Stage 0, meaning no drought conditions, to Stage 5, meaning severe drought conditions.

More than half of Alberta’s major river basins were at Stage 0, but the province listed the Red Deer River basin at Stage 1, while the Oldman, South Saskatchewan, Buffalo and Great Slave Lake basins were at Stage 2. The Milk River basin was at Stage 3.

The province said the Milk River basin was the major exception to the more positive water outlook. River volumes there were expected to be well below normal through September, after early season runoff soaked into the soil instead of reaching the river.

Due to water sharing rules under the Canada U.S. Boundary Waters Treaty, irrigators in the Milk River basin could no longer draw water from the river. Household water use in the Town of Milk River was not affected by the irrigation shutdown.

The Boundary Waters Treaty governs water sharing for the St. Mary and Milk rivers between Canada and the United States. Alberta said the 1909 treaty established the International Joint Commission, while a 1921 order set the St. Mary River and Milk River points where each country’s share is determined. Accredited officers from Canada and the United States calculate natural flow volumes and each country’s share twice per month.

During the irrigation season, which runs from April 1 to Oct. 31, Canada is entitled to 25 per cent of the natural flows in the Milk River. The province said Canada was in deficit to the United States as of April 30 and that by early May there were virtually no natural flows on the Milk River.

While the Milk River situation did not directly mirror conditions in the Crowsnest Pass, it showed the uneven nature of Alberta’s water recovery heading into summer.

For Crowsnest Pass and much of the Oldman basin, the May forecast pointed to a better starting point than last year, with stronger river volumes and above normal reservoir storage. The province said it would continue monitoring snowpack, precipitation, river levels and drought conditions as the summer season approached.