Northback study projects $9.5B GDP impact

Northback officials say a new socioeconomic impact study prepared by Ernst and Young shows the revised Grassy Mountain project could bring billions of dollars in economic activity to Canada while creating local business opportunities in southwest Alberta.

Sanjiv Manchanda, chief executive officer of Hanroy Projects and Mike Young, chief executive officer of Northback, spoke about the study during a June 16 interview ahead of its release.

Manchanda said the study assesses the potential economic and social impact of the revised Grassy Mountain project, which Northback has said would produce 2.5 million tonnes of steelmaking coal per year.

He said the project is estimated to generate $14 billion in exports, $9.5 billion in gross domestic product and $2.2 billion in tax revenue through construction and operations.

“The impact is gigantic,” Manchanda said.

He said the estimates are based on a long-term steelmaking coal price forecast of roughly US$150 to US$160 per tonne, which he described as conservative compared to recent spot prices.

Young said the study also looks at direct, indirect and induced employment connected to the project. Direct jobs would include Northback employees, while indirect jobs could include contractors, suppliers and service providers. Induced jobs would come from broader economic activity tied to workers and contractors spending money in the region.

Northback said it remains committed to hiring locally where possible.

Young said the company does not want to create a fly-in, fly-out workforce for operations, though he said a temporary construction camp would likely be needed because some construction workers are specialized and move between projects.

“The idea is to have people living with their families while working at the project,” Young said.

Manchanda said Northback’s goal is to fill jobs locally first, including workers from Crowsnest Pass, Pincher Creek, Lundbreck and surrounding communities. He said the company would only expand its search outside the region if local hiring cannot meet its needs.

The officials said a wide range of local businesses could benefit if the project proceeds, including trades, fuel suppliers, caterers, delivery services, transportation companies, security providers, hardware stores, grocery stores and hospitality businesses.

Young said Northback has already heard from business owners interested in potential opportunities tied to the project.

“When are you going to get into production?” Young said, describing the type of questions the company has heard from local operators. “Because I run a car business, I run a scrap metal business, I run a plastics business.”

Manchanda said the economic activity during construction would differ somewhat from the operating phase, but both would create demand for goods and services in the region.

He said workers living in the area during construction would still need everyday supplies, transportation, food, deliveries and other services.

The study also identifies housing as an area that could be affected by the project.

Young said Northback plans to work with the Municipality of Crowsnest Pass on housing pressures and planning needs. The interview also referenced Northback’s offer to fund a municipal planner to help the municipality prepare for potential growth connected to the project.

Manchanda said the socioeconomic study is a point-in-time report and will be refined as part of the company’s application work.

“There’s a prescribed format in which the AER requires the socioeconomic assessment report to be submitted along with the full application,” he said.

Northback officials also pointed to Indigenous economic participation as part of the company’s plans.

Manchanda said Northback’s largest current contract is with a Piikani business providing security services. He said the company intends to look first to Indigenous businesses where they can provide services, then to partnerships and longer-term capability building where needed.

Young said potential Indigenous business opportunities include security, sand and gravel, travel and supplies.

“We are very keen to ensure that the capability building is there for them to either learn on the job or prepare them for the positions,” Young said.

The company also discussed engineering changes to its proposed rail loadout system.

Young said Northback has moved the loader into a rock cutting so it would sit below grade. He said there would be no stockpile at the rail loadout, with coal moving from the mine to the loadout by covered conveyor.

He said the project would require roughly two to three trains per week and the loading process would be continuous, with the train moving under the loading tower.

Young said the coal would contain moisture for dust suppression and shipping purposes, and the company is also looking at screening and other steps to reduce visual impacts.

He said Northback sees potential to connect modern mine infrastructure with the area’s mining history, including tourism opportunities tied to the contrast between old and new mining technology.

The revised Grassy Mountain proposal remains subject to the regulatory process.

Young said Northback is moving toward an integrated application later this year and plans to release more technical information as it becomes available.

He said water management will include multiple layers of protection, including mine design, storage, testing and treatment where needed. He said the mine design avoids waste rock dumps in Gold Creek habitat.

Manchanda said the company has reconfigured the project after listening to community feedback, including reducing the disturbance footprint by 40 per cent and changing water management plans.

He said Northback has also used site-specific data from recent drilling to support its modelling.

“We have listened quite intensively,” Manchanda said.

The project has drawn both support and opposition in southwest Alberta, with supporters pointing to jobs and economic activity while opponents have raised concerns about water, land disturbance and impacts on the Eastern Slopes.

Young said Northback will continue public engagement as more information is released.

He said the socioeconomic study is one part of a larger application process that will include more detailed technical material before regulators make a decision on the project.