As a committed Conservative

As a committed Conservative, I find myself increasingly disheartened by the current political climate and the narratives presented big media. The recent polls suggesting a Liberal lead are particularly demoralizing, especially when I consider the trajectory our country is on under Liberal leadership. It’s perplexing to me how many Canadians fail to recognize that Mark Carney is not just a continuation of Justin Trudeau’s policies but potentially an exacerbation of them. Carney’s close association with Trudeau, having served as his advisor, signals a perpetuation of the same agenda that has steered our nation into economic uncertainty.

Carney’s international career is often touted as a strength, but in the United Kingdom, his tenure as governor of the Bank of England drew sharp criticism from prominent officials. Former Conservative MP Jacob Rees Mogg accused him of being too political, particularly during the Brexit referendum, saying Carney had questioned the credibility of leaving the EU. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Lord Lawson went further, claiming Carney had behaved disgracefully and acted beneath the dignity of the Bank of England. Even some within the institution said Carney preferred centralized control over collaboration. These criticisms raise serious questions about whether his leadership is driven by data and policy or by ideology and optics, and whether that same approach would carry over to Canadian politics.

Adding to my apprehension is Carney’s stance on critical energy policies. He has said he will not repeal Bill C 69, legislation that has blocked new pipeline development and crippled our ability to get oil and gas to markets beyond the United States. Europe is crying out for energy alternatives, and Canada should be leading that charge. Instead, under Liberal policy, we are stuck. This choice will stunt our economy and continue to alienate the West, particularly Alberta.

What makes it worse is watching the dynamics from the outside. Donald Trump’s apparent endorsement of Carney isn’t because he believes in him. It’s because Carney is either easier to control or committed to an agenda that keeps Canada economically weak and vulnerable. A weakened Canada suits American interests just fine. What does that say about the direction this country is heading?

And here’s the hard truth: This election, like every federal election, will be decided before most Western Canadians finish their dinner. The results are effectively called by the time polls close in Ontario and Quebec. The West watches the national map light up red while our votes haven’t even been counted. It raises the fundamental question of Alberta’s place in this confederation.

What more can we give? We drive the economy. We power homes. We put food on the table across Canada. And yet, when it comes to political power, we are left out in the cold. If the Liberals win again, I fear the next predominant issue in this country will be not just economic recovery or carbon taxes, but Alberta’s role in Canada itself. Where do we fit as a province? How long can we go unheard?

Given all this, I don’t know what to believe about the polls.

These regional differences highlight the limits of national polling. While national numbers provide a high level view, they often mask important local trends. Factors such as local economies, cultural identities and riding specific issues all contribute to the regional variations in polling data.

Polling methodology remains a concern. Ensuring representative samples that reflect each region’s political and demographic makeup is challenging. Under-representation of certain groups, such as urban conservatives or rural liberals, can distort results. The 2024 U.S. presidential election illustrated this when Donald Trump outperformed expectations due to underestimated support in under polled regions.

In Canada, a similar dynamic could unfold. If conservative voters are less likely to respond to surveys, or if pollsters rely too heavily on past voting behaviour, current support for the Conservative Party may be understated. This could lead to surprises on election day as actual turnout differs from poll based projections.

While regional polling offers valuable insights, it must be read with care. Methodological blind spots and uneven participation rates can skew the picture. Voters and analysts should look beyond single data points and consider a range of polls and perspectives.

As the campaign unfolds, understanding what drives voters in each region will be essential. Canada’s electoral map is not uniform, and appreciating its complexity is key to predicting what may come in 2025.

The structure of our electoral system means federal elections are effectively decided in Central and Eastern Canada. With Ontario and Quebec accounting for over half of the seats in the House of Commons, the national outcome is often clear before polls even close in much of Western Canada. For many Albertans, this reinforces a sense of political marginalization within Confederation. If Canadians once again choose a Liberal government and a continuation of the status quo, it will inevitably raise deeper questions about Alberta’s place in this country. Are national electoral outcomes reflective of Alberta’s interests and values, or are they decided in spite of them? If the Liberals return to power, I fear the next dominant issue will not just be economic recovery or climate policy, but a renewed reckoning with the question: Where does Alberta truly fit in the Canadian federation?

I am a proud Canadian. I believe in the strength of this country, its people and its potential. But under years of Liberal governance, I find myself questioning what being Canadian even means anymore. Is it shared prosperity, or forced submission to Central Canadian politics? Is it fair treatment for all provinces, or the slow erosion of Alberta’s voice and economic future? If we cannot even build a pipeline to serve our own citizens and allies, if we cannot be heard until after the polls have closed, then perhaps the biggest question of this election is not just who will lead us, but what kind of country we are choosing to become.